Stimulus Checks: True-Up and Safe-Harbor Costs

Stimulus checks were sent in response to recent US recessions. These checks grew from about $40 billion in the 2001 recession to $800 billion in the COVID era. Prior studies, however, ignored additional stimulus received upon filing tax returns (true-ups) and safe harbors that prevent possible stimulus repayment. Using population-level tax data, I estimate true-up and safe-harbor costs and decompose them by reasons, such as changes in income or the number of children. True-ups and safe harbors are costly. For the three rounds of COVID-era stimulus, true-ups and safe harbors cost more than $130 billion.

Unemployment Insurance in Survey and Administrative Data

Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits were a central part of the social safety net during the COVID-19 recession. UI benefits, however, are severely understated in surveys. Using administrative tax data, we find that over half of UI benefits were missed in major survey data, with a greater understatement among low-income workers. As a result, 2020 official poverty rates were overstated by about 2 percentage points, and corrected poverty reached a six-decade low. We provide data to correct underreporting in surveys and show that, compared to UI benefits, the UI exclusion tax expenditure was less targeted at low incomes.